Make These Two Profitable Exploits with HUD Statistics

I’m going to help you use a few HUD statistics the make two profitable exploits.

My Smart HUD for PokerTracker 4 is the most valuable tool in my poker arsenal.  It helps me make +EV decisions every time I play.

And, I don’t play on sites that do not allow for a HUD. I like to have every advantage possible over my opponents, and the HUD, along with my experience using it, puts me far ahead of most of my opponents.

I want to help you on your journey to becoming a HUD master today.

I’m going to discuss the 3 parts to using HUD stats to exploit your opponents.

I’m going to share two of my favorite HUD statistics based exploits today. The first is exploiting turn honest cbettors and the second is exploiting frequent 3bet callers. And I’ll give you the exact HUD statistics and percentages I look for when exploiting these players.

Listen to the podcast as you follow along below:

Everyone Has Poker Leaks – So Find Profitable Exploits to Make!

One of the great things about poker is that every player has leaks. Poker leaks are actions that we continually make that cost us money.

And, because poker is a numbers game, there are statistical signs for every leak.

Example: many losing players play far too many hands to try and hit flops. Statistically, a VPIP > 30% signifies this type of flop-loving player. So, we try and target fishy players with a >30% VPIP.

When you want to exploit a certain poker leak, there are 3 things we must do:

  1. Understand the Leak
  2. Learn How to Exploit the Leak
  3. Look for Statistics that Signal the Leak

 

 

Exploiting Turn Honest Cbettors (One-and-Done Flop Cbetting)

1. Understand the Leak

Turn Honest Cbetting means they are quick to fire one bluff on the flop, then they shut down on the turn. To them, your resistance means you hit something, so why fire another barrel?

They just give up instead, unless they have a value hand.

Why is this a leak?

This is a leak because aggression wins in poker.

Being aggressive on just one street is not good enough nowadays. Players call you on the flop just to see what you will do on the turn because they know many players do not bluff turns.

Because so many players are willing to call on the flop, more often than not you have to be willing to double barrel to get them off their hand.

 

2. Learn How to Exploit the Leak

So before I tell you how to exploit turn honest cbettors, noodle on this for yourself right now.

How would you exploit these players?

I exploit turn honest cbettors by calling almost every flop cbet and then betting at the next opportunity after they check the turn. If I’m IP, I will bet on the turn. And if I’m OOP and they check-behind, I will bet on the river.

I won’t call every single flop cbet, though. I will gauge how likely their preflop range hit the board before calling, and I’ll think about how my range hits the board. On hard to hit boards like Q72r or TT5, there are less strong hands in their range, so calling with the intent to bluff later is more profitable.

I will also make this kind of play on “scary” boards. If I’m the preflop caller and I called again on a board like JT9ss or 2s3s5s or 987r, they are scared that I flopped a really strong hand. If they’re the kind of player who sees monsters under the bed, my flop call will scare them into checking the turn. What a great opportunity to steal!

 

3. Look for Statistics that Signal the Leak

What statistics will help us find players who suffer from this leak?

We want to see a Flop Cbet at 60% or higher with a big drop in their Turn Cbet statistic:

The Smart HUD: you can see Villain’s Flop Cbet at 85% and Turn Cbet at 33%.

Something like 70% on the flop down to 45% on the turn is great. Even better would be 85% on the flop down to 33% on the turn (Smart HUD panel above for Villain 20). The lower their turn cbet is and the bigger the gap, the more turn honest they are.

You must train yourself to spot these players using their HUD statistics.

How to Exploit:

  • When you find a player like this, call a lot of their preflop raises, especially when you have position.
  • Assess the flop and how well it interacts with their range, and make a plan to call the flop and bluff when they check the turn.
  • Force yourself to pull the trigger on this exploit when you find it.

Critical Thinking Test:

This is a flop honest cbettor:

The Smart HUD: Villain’s Flop Cbet is just 32%.

How would you exploit him?

 

 

Exploiting Frequent 3bet Callers

1. Understand the Leak

Most players open-raise with a wide range of hands: Strong hands like AA and AK, but also A9s, KTs, JTo and 33.

Seeing as how most 3bets we face after open-raising are made with stronger hands like AA, KK and AK, we should fold many of our weak open-raising hands.

But too many players call with these hands in hopes that the 3better is bluffing or that they hit a miracle flop.

Calling with these super weak hands puts you at a big disadvantage in a huge money-losing situation.

 

2. Learn How to Exploit the Leak

The way we exploit these players is by strictly value betting with hands that are better than their calling ranges. So, I do a lot less bluffing because I want them to fold, but they don’t like folding to 3bets.

“If they ain’t folding, we ain’t bluffing.”

Instead of bluffing, we widen our value range a little bit because they can call with dominated hands. For example, we can raise for value with AJs with weaker AX, KX and even QX hands.

And, I also increase my 3bet size if I think the player can call. I’ve made it 15bb’s before with AA and they’ve called!

 

3. Look for Statistics that Signal the Leak

What statistics will help us find players who suffer from this leak?

We want to look for a high RFI stat by position >20%. Couple that with a low Raise/Fold to 3bet stat in that same position at <50%:

The Smart HUD: He raises first in 30% total, but only folds to 3bets 11% of the time.

As a great example, the Villain’s Smart HUD panel above shows that he raises first in 30%, but folds only 11% of the time (about 1/10).

Looking at the Fold to 3bet Popup, in the EP/MP/CO, he never folds to 3bets even though his RFI > 20%. The BTN has the widest RFI range and he only folds 20% (1/5). Great value 3betting target!

*Critical Idea*: Because he rarely folds, always expect a call when you 3bet Villains like this.

It’s also helpful they fold versus flop cbets a lot (look for Fold to Flop Cbet >60%). Just imagine a player who calls 3bets frequently but gives up on every flop unless they catch a good hand. 3betting then cbet bluffing them = printing money.

Critical Thinking Test:

The Villain above only folds on the flop 42% of the time versus cbets. How would you further exploit this?

 

Challenge

Here’s my challenge to you for this episode:

For the next 3 days, look for every opportunity to exploit turn honest cbettors, and pull the trigger as often as profitable.

The next 3days after that, look for every opportunity to 3bet for extra value against non-folders, and pull the trigger as often as profitable.

Tag these hands to review in your study sessions to improve your exploiting skills.

Now it’s your turn to pull the trigger and do something positive for your poker game.

 

Support the Show

These wonderful poker peeps recently picked up my Smart HUD for PokerTracker 4 (17-stats with 7 custom popups and 75-minute how-to webinar): Daan Turnbull, Dardan Sabovic, Kent Jesse, Matthew Bower, Piotr Turlewicz, Steve Allen, Ally Gunn, Manuel Gerspach, Terry Love, Andy C., Victor Christiansen, John Duderstadt, Sabine Gorontzi, John Walker, Eric Walling, Brian Esser, Mark Wyckoff, Janos, Pat Castera, Jeff Hardy, Pat Castera, Stefan Jagot, Chris Trost, Brian Roy, Thomas Cashman, Tom, Cameron De Vere, Jonathan Sousa, Mark Butcher, Carl Gustafsson, Richard Day, Paul Burville and Alexander. Thank you all so much!

Sky Matsuhashi
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