In today’s podcast Q&A, I answer 3 listener Q’s about expecting MTT variance with small samples, playing small to medium pocket pairs and I review a hand sent in by a listener.

In episode 58 I discussed the PokerTracker 4 HUD popups that I use to maximally exploit my opponents.

MTT Variance, Playing Pocket Pairs and a HH Review | Q&A | #059

Question 1 from Ingamar (4:40)

• There’s no way you could ever get away from this hand on the turn because of the tiny stack he has and the super wide range he has.
• He cold called a 3bet then a 4bet OOP with a 72bb stack, super fishy
• Here’s how I see how the hand should’ve been played:
  On the flop you have the over-pair to the 986 two-tone board. That’s pretty wet w/ lots of draws possible. The pot’s already at $18 or so and he’s only got about $10 left in his stack. I’m just shoving here to get max value out of any draws or paired hands that this obvious fish will call with.

Question 2 from Jaime (9:30)

• In 16 months you’ve only played 16 tournaments per month, that’s not even one per day so it’s a pretty small sample size.  Your cashing rate is about expected at a little under 10%, which is almost at the 10% payout schedule for most tourneys.
• Here’s the first return on a Google search for “big MTT downswing”

Question 3 from Big T (12:30)

• 22-TT in MTT’s are great to play for their set-mining value and for their ability to win without improving. You shouldn’t have a default play with these in any situation. There’s lots of ways to play them, and we can break this down to a few situations to simplify things.

1. First to Act w/decent stack size
Best Option: Open raise – this increases your overall aggression, makes you harder to read, and can lead to taking down the pot right now.
2nd Best Option: Open limp (OL) – when you open-limp with small pairs, you’re doing so to set mine, so keep that in mind.
Worst Option: Fold – pairs are so valuable that the worst thing you could do is just fold them outright b/c you’re scared of losing with them.
2. First to Act w/short stack
How you play here is wholly dependent on your position, the players yet to act and how close you are to the money.
You can typically jam it in to steal the blinds/antes, and the later your position the better. The earlier you are the more likely a bigger stack can call w/ over-cards that can catch, or somebody will wake up with a hand worth calling.
If you’re image is that of a tight player, you could open to 2.5bb’s to steal as they’ll look at your short stack behind and fold all but their best hands b/c they’ll figure you’re committed to the pot.
You could just fold here, especially if near the bubble. Don’t risk your tourney life on the bubble w/10bb’s and 55.
3. Limps ahead of you
If short stacked and you think the limpers are doing so with weak hands, jam to steal the pot especially if you’re in the CO, BTN, SB or BB. Or, if you think they could be laying a trap, just fold.
If it’s decent sized stacks, then limp behind to set mine or raise to steal it from them. Just make sure you think the players who limped are weak and likely to fold and there aren’t many people left to act behind you.
It’s okay to fold instead of just call if you don’t want to raise if you think there’s aggressive players yet to act and you’ll prolly face a raise. Remember the x15 rule for set-mining: You can call if there’s at least 15 times the bet size in the effective stacks. For example, you have to call a bet of 100. If everyone has at least 1,500 chips behind, then you have the implied odds to make the call.
4. A raise ahead of you
If decent stacks (x15 rule) you can call, but beware that your call sets up a good squeeze spot for somebody yet to act.
You could also 3bet semi-bluff w/ decent stacks if you think your opp will more often fold than call.  You could also 3bet shove if you think your opp will fold and you’re short stacked. Beware that in MTT’s big stacks like to call short stack shoves w/broadways, so try to note if your opp’s are capable of this.
To sum all this up, pp’s are worth playing and often for a raise, but you need to consider your opp’s, your position, your stack size and your image before doing so. They aren’t only good for set-mining as they can hold up and win without improving.

Challenge (18:20)

Here’s my challenge to you for this episode: Submit your HH questions to the FB discussion group! We’ve got lots of great players there who love to help out and give their take on your questions. I often chime in as well, but it’s great to get input from players at all different levels. Just visit www.smartpokerstudy.com/discuss to join the group and start getting involved in our community. Make some friends, study some poker, and help each other improve.