Calculating your outs and odds are super important to profitably draw to made hands on the flop and turn.
In case you missed it…
In episode 43 I interviewed Alex “Assassinato” Fitzgerald and we discussed his recent webinar ‘The Professional’s Mindset’ and his upcoming book, ‘The Myth of Poker Talent.”
Outs and Odds | #045
My mission for today is to show you how to easily calculate the odds of hitting a made hand based on your outs from the flop or the turn.
Outs and Odds
Here’s an outs and odds chart I made with actual %’s and the shortcut 4/2 rule %’s.
Knowing the 4/2 Rule is good enough, but there are those out there like me who need to know that this math is accurate enough to base decisions off of.
In the chart above, 8 outs has a 31% chance of hitting by the river from the flop and 17% of hitting from the turn. How do we calculate this?
8 outs on the flop means that out of the 47 cards remaining in the deck that we don’t know about (52 card deck minus our hand minus the board), we have a 17% (8/47) chance of hitting one of these outs on the turn. Keep in mind that with a 17% chance to hit, we’re missing 83% of the time. Remember this because we’ll use it again.
If we miss the turn and didn’t hit our hand, we still have 8 outs to hit the on the river, but now there’s only 46 cards remaining because we saw one on the turn. So our chance of hitting the river is 8 out of 46 remaining cards or roughly another 17% (which is also an 83% chance of missing again).
Combining the two two ‘missing’ %’s of 83% on the turn and 83% on the river, means there’s a 69% chance of missing our draw entirely by the river (.83 x .83), or just a 31% chance of hitting.
We’ve calculated a 31% chance of hitting our draw from the flop and only 17% chance of hitting from the turn. This makes the 4/2 rule pretty accurate as 8 outs on the flop x 4 = 32% and 8 outs on the turn x 2 = 16%.
Poker math is often pretty simple like this and just requires using addition, subtraction, multiplication and division. Don’t ever let poker math scare you as most of it is pretty simple once you figure out how to do it.
Here’s my challenge to you for this episode: If the 4/2 rule isn’t ingrained in your poker lexicon yet, get on it! As you play your next few sessions, every time you’re considering drawing to a hand, think about the number of outs you have and calculate the odds of hitting one of your outs. Learning this math is the start of making sound mathematical drawing decisions.
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In podcast #46, I’ll give you another episode jam packed with answers in this week’s Q&A.
Until next time, study smart, play much and make your next session the best one yet.
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