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Counting Outs and Making Profitable Calls

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Do you understand outs and odds math? Do you use it to make profitable post-flop drawing calls?

There is a huge issue that many players face… they don’t know how to determine whether their draw is worth chasing. Maybe you have this issue: You flop a flush draw and your opponent bets 2/3 pot. Is your draw strong enough to call? Are you paying too much to chase it?

This uncertainty leads to losing calls.

Listen to this podcast episode as you follow along below.

In this article, I’m going to show you how to quickly calculate the chances of hitting your draw and how to use that number to make a profitable call.

Counting Outs and Calculating the Chance of Hitting

Outs are the cards that can come on the turn or river that can improve your hand into a potentially winning hand.  Here are some examples:

  • You have AK on the 962r flop. How many outs do you have to a TP hand? 6 outs (3x Ace and 3x King)
  • You have T9, and the flop is 2JQr. How many outs do you have to a straight?  8 (open-ended)
  • Now, let’s say you’ve got the same, Ts9s, and the flop is As6s3c. How many outs to the flush?  9 (spades)
  • Same hand, Ts9s on the lovely 8s7s3c flop. Wow, you’re open-ended with the straight-flush draw and two overcards.  How many outs to a TP+ hand? 21 outs (9 spades, 3 Jacks, 3 Sixes, 3 Tens and 3 Nines)

For some people, counting their outs on the flop can be tough because they haven’t developed good board recognition skills. If this sounds like you, you MUST practice board recognition. Here’s how:

  • Grab a deck of cards and deal yourself a hand.
  • Deal a 3-card flop.
  • Compare your hand to the flop and look for draws.
  • Count the number of outs for a TP+ hand.
  • Repeat this with new hands until you run out of cards.

The more practice you put in, the better you’ll be at spotting your draws and counting outs.

The x2 Rule for the Chance of Hitting

Now that we know our outs, how do we calculate our chance of hitting our draw?

We use the x2 Rule: the chance of hitting one of your outs on the next street can be estimated by multiplying the number of outs x 2. So, flopping an open-ended straight draw with 8 outs, x2, means it hits on the turn about 16% of the time. If you were on the turn with your 8 outs, it would hit 16% on the river.

If you wanted to calculate the chance of hitting your flopped draw by the river, you would multiply your outs x4. Your 8 outs on the flop have a 32% chance of hitting by the river. You use the x4 Rule often in tournaments when you’re considering going all-in on the flop so you’re guaranteed to see the river.

The Math Behind the x2 Rule

8 outs on the flop means that out of the 47 unknown cards remaining in the deck (52 card deck minus our hand minus the board), we have a 17% (8/47) chance of hitting one of these outs on the turn. That 17% is very close to the estimated 16% using the x2 Rule.

Keep in mind that with a 17% chance to hit, we’re missing 83% of the time.  Remember this because we’ll use it again.

If we miss our draw on the turn, we still have 8 outs to hit on the river, but now there are only 46 cards remaining in the deck.  So, our chance of hitting the river is 8 out of 46 remaining cards or roughly another 17% (which is also an 83% chance of missing again).

We can use the 83% chance of missing our draw on either street to calculate how often we’re missing on both streets. We miss on the turn 83% and on the river 83%, multiply these together to find the chance of missing on both streets. So, .83 x .83 = 69%. We have a 69% chance of missing our flopped draw by the river. This means we have a 31% chance of hitting the draw on the turn or river (100% – 69%). The actual 31% chance of hitting by the river is very close to the estimated 32% using the x4 Rule.

Paying the Right Price for Chasing Your Draw

You flop the open-ended straight draw for 8 outs. You use the x2 Rule and you know you have a 16% chance of hitting your draw on the turn. Your opponent just bet $.50 into the $1 pot. Is it profitable to call this bet size to hit your draw?

To figure this out, you need to calculate the break-even point on your call then compare your chance of hitting to the break-even point.

Break-even Point for Calling = Total Risk / Total Reward

In this example, you’re risking a call of $.50 to win a total pot of $2 ($1 pot + $.50 bet + $.50 call).

Break-Even Point for Calling = .50 / (1+.5+.5) = .50 / 2 = 25%

If your chance of hitting > BE point, then calling is okay. In this example, 16% < 25%, so calling IS NOT a profitable play to make. You should fold or 4bet bluff instead.

Now this should get you thinking,

“If it’s unprofitable to call a 1/2 pot bet with an open-ended straight draw, how good of a draw do I need to make a profitable call?”

Well, if you had 13 outs, x2, gives you a 26% chance of hitting which is greater than the 25% BE point. So, you would need something like an OESD + 2 overcards for 14 outs. That has a 28% chance of hitting and makes for a profitable call against the 1/2 pot bet.

Break-even Calling Cheat Sheet

Figure 91 from Preflop Online Poker: This cheat sheet will help you make profitable calls.

It can be tough to calculate break-even percentages on the fly. But the great thing about math is that it never changes as long as you’re thinking of bets and calls in terms of the pot. Calling a 1/2 pot bet always breaks even at 25%. It doesn’t matter if it’s $.50 into a $1 pot or a $100 bet into a $200 pot.

The break-even calling %’s on the cheat sheet will help you estimate while you’re playing. If your opponent bets about 1/2 pot, your call needs to win you the pot at least 25%. If they bet roughly full pot, your call needs to win roughly 33% of the time.

Write down the calling break-even %’s on a sticky note so you can use it the next time you’re thinking about calling somebody’s bet.

Challenge

Here’s my challenge to you for this episode: Use the x2 Rule and the Break-even Calling Point when deciding whether or not to call with your draw. If your chance of hitting is > the BE calling point, go ahead and call. If not, fold or raise to bluff them off the hand if they can find a fold.

Also, put the BE Calling Point Cheat Sheet on a sticky note to help you with all future calling decisions.

Now it’s your turn to take action and do something positive for your poker game.

Support the Show

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Don’t Respect the Player, But Always Respect the Math!

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Always respect the math! Poker’s one big math problem and in this article, I show you the critical importance of 4 poker math concepts. Applying these mathematical bad boys will improve your profitability.

Listen to this podcast episode as you follow along below:

The idea for this article came from a 1-on-1 coaching session with a long-time student named Keith. We were reviewing his recent losing hands and one stood out to me. I questioned him as to why he would play a starting hand as weak as J7s. He said he’s trying to get heads up against every weak player that he has ∅ respect for, and sometimes that means playing really crappy hands.

I told him:

“Don’t respect the player, but always respect the math.”

I whipped out Flopzilla Pro and showed him the equity his J7s had against this player’s calling range… and it was bad. He was a big-time dog and in the long run, it’s going to be tough for him to make J7s profitable with such a preflop equity disadvantage.

Respect the Math of Ranges

Playing with stronger ranges than your opponent gives you a mathematical edge that in the long run, they’re can’t overcome.

How do I know this mathematical edge exists? I do range versus range analysis with Flopzilla Pro, as demonstrated in this video:

Let’s say you’re a tight-aggressive player and your total VPIP is 15% over the last 20,000 hands (lower in EP, higher in LP but averages 15%). Your 15% VPIP range may look like this:

The average VPIP for most of your opponents is 25%-35%. Let’s say 30% is the average player VPIP:

So, your average opponent plays about double the hands you play, which makes their 30% VPIP range much weaker than yours.

Quick Quiz: How much preflop equity do you think your 15% VPIP range has against their 30% VPIP range? Is it 50% 55%? 65%?

In Flopzilla Pro, using the “multi-player mode” (red circle below), you can pit the 15% range versus the 30% range and you’ll see this:

Wow, your tighter range gives you 56% preflop equity (rounded) against them. What does this mean?

It means the math is on your side!

Vegas casinos built their billion-dollar empires over the long run with a 1-5% edge in their various games. You hold a 12.5% mathematical edge against your opponents (56.257% – 43.743%). In the long run, they can’t beat you! (assuming you’re making good post-flop decisions)

The takeaway lesson here:

Tighter ranges give you an unbeatable mathematical edge in the long run.

Do you want a mathematical preflop edge against your opponents? Get the Kiss Cash Game Ranges here:

Respect the Math of Position

You probably know that position is king. But, do you play with this in mind?

Filter in your PT4 database right now for Saw Flop In Position and record the # of hands and your win rate:

Now, run a filter for Saw Flop NOT In Position and record the # of hands and your win rate:

Most likely, you’ll find your win rate is much higher when in position (IP). Why is this? Because:

“Position is king”

With position you have more information to work with and your opponent has to contend with your positional advantage on the flop, turn and river. When IP, it’s easier to pot control, easier to bet or raise for value and it’s easier to bluff.

And you might not realize this, but being IP gives you more time to think about the situation when you’re in. When they act first, the time they take to make a decision is a gift to you. You have extra precious seconds to think about things like range/board texture interaction, their tendencies, the stack and pot sizes and all other important information.

How often are you in position on the flop? If it’s not at least 40% of the time, you’re not striving to play in position as much as possible.

Why the heck aren’t you?!

You see that mathematically, IP > OOP, so if you want to make poker easier on yourself, more enjoyable and more profitable, you MUST strive for IP play as much as possible.

This means you’ll play tighter in the early positions and call less frequently from the blinds, even if you’re up against a weak player who you have ∅ respect for.

Need help running PokerTracker 4 filters?

Respect the Math of HUD Statistics

Your opponent Folds to Flop Cbets 70% of the time? Why didn’t you cbet bluff the flop just now? I understand if you flopped the nuts and don’t want them to fold, but most of the time you’re not flopping the nuts and you fail to flop a pair or a draw. You should be firing flop or turn bluffs when they’ve shown a tendency to fold. The math of their flop folding tendency is on your side.

Should you still cbet the flop for value even if you flop a monster? Totally because…

“Get value while the gettin’s good.”

Value Gettin’ Example: Flopping a Monster

You flop TP or better and you’re up against a player who, the math shows, only folds on the flop 45% of the time? You’ve got to value bet here. Sure, you might flop quads 5’s on the 655 flop and you don’t want your opponent to fold so I can go along with checking one street.

However, what if you’re against is a strong and capable player with 55 on the 655 flop? They’re looking at that flop and the math is telling them it’s a hard to hit board. If you bet into them at 1/2 pot, they might think you’re bluffing and they can call with their 2 overcards (KT, QJ, etc.). Or maybe, they’re capable of bluff-raising on hard-to-hit boards. You bet 1/2 pot, they think they can hit your pain threshold by 3x’ing you and bam! Your tiny 1/2 pot value bet gets at least 3x value. You can now either call or re-raise, whichever you think will earn you even more chips.

The Math Helps you Listen to What Their Actions Tell You

If you’re on the BTN and hold ATs and the BB 3bets you, what do you do? First, you look at his positional 3bet % in the BB. If it’s only 1% over 100 opportunities, the math is telling you he’s doing it with AA or KK only. Easy fold.

However, if the math is telling you he 3bets from the BB 15% over 100 opportunities, he’s got loads of bluffs in his range. Folding is still an option if you want, but you’ve also got the option to call with ATs which is ahead of some of his bluffing hands, plus you’ve got position. Or, you can 4bet re-bluff him off his BB 3bet stealing range. If you’ve seen him 3bet/fold a few times from the BB, the math is again on your side and he’s likely folding. Just size your 4bet big enough to hit his pain threshold and get him to fold.

Respect the Math of Your History

Let’s dive into your PokerTracker 4 database of hands. Filter through your last 20,000 hands and record the # of hands and win rates for:

  • Preflop 2bet
  • Call Preflop 2bet
  • Preflop 3bet
  • Call Preflop 3bet

Most likely, you win more money with aggressive plays (making 2bets or 3bets) than the passive plays (calling 2bets or 3bets).

So, the math of your own history is telling you that Aggression > Passivity. So, why do you call preflop so much? I’m not saying don’t call at all, but because Aggression > Passivity, you MUST make more preflop raises than calls.

Look at the #’s of hands you wrote down. If you’re calling more 2bets than you are making 2bets, you’re NOT respecting the math. If you’re calling more 3bets than you making 3bets, you’re NOT respecting the math. Get it through your thick skull that Aggression > Passivity… so stop calling so much and start raising more.

Post-flop History Repeats

Run 4 more filters and record the # of hands and win rates once again:

  • Flop Cbet
  • Turn Cbet
  • Call Flop Cbet
  • Call Turn Cbet

I’m pretty sure you’ll find that making the cbet is more profitable than calling the cbet. So, stop calling so much preflop which gives your opponents the opportunity to cbet into you. Another way to look at this, be the preflop aggressor so you’re the one making cbets, not facing them.

Respect the math of Aggression > Passivity.

Conclusion:

“In the long run, a respect for the math paired with good decision-making skills will make you a winner.”

Challenge

Here’s my challenge to you for this episode:

Get the KISS Cash Game Ranges (above) and print them out. Do it now!!! These will give you a mathematical edge against most of your low and micro stakes opponents. The ranges come with directions to help you learn them. I recommend playing with them through your next 5,000 hands. Good luck!

Now it’s your turn to take action and do something positive for your poker game.

Support the Show

These super poker peeps picked up my first book: JV, Simone Leiter, Mr. Baby Bigz, Raul Mirabel and Jarvi Jyri. They got How to Study Poker Volume 1 in PDF, audiobook or they saved $$$ by getting both.

And Byron Hernandez, David Backham, Bret Burns, Jarvi Jyri and Mr. Baby Bigz picked up How to Study Poker Volume 2 direct from me as well. You’ve got your choice of PDF, audiobook or save $$$ by getting both.

The Math Behind 7 Tilting Situations and How to Respond | Poker Podcast #210

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I discuss 7 tilting situations, the math behind each and what you can do to respond effectively to them.  It takes lots of work to get beyond tilt, and this one’s going to help you immensely.

In episode 209, I answered 3 questions about playing 3bet pots, improved cbetting and set mining.

Improving Our Reaction to Tilting Situations (2:50)

Tilt is a bankroll and win rate killer, and you must get beyond the things that tilt you most often.

Poker is one big math problem and by knowing that, you’d think that we could look at poker totally rationally and logically, and emotions should never be an issue. But of course, that’s not the case.

There are so many things that happen on a session by session basis (and multiple times per session) that can cause us to get angry, frustrated or upset. These negative emotions can lead to what all poker players fear the most: TILT.

Sometimes we’re able to get beyond the anger or the frustration and move on to the next hand with clear rational thought and +EV decision making. But, other times these things set us off and we begin spewing chips with bad calls and bad bluffs.

The goal of this podcast is to help you train your brain to be less reactive. We need to become aware of our emotional responses and learn to control them. With each tilting experience we face, we have an opportunity to improve our reactions. We can take a deep breath, calm our emotions and respond with a +EV decision.

We don’t have any power over what happens at the table or how our opponents act. But, we do have 100% power in how we choose to respond.

As we practice being calm and controlling our reactions, over time we’ll get better at it. The goal is to eventually not allow anger or frustration to cloud our judgment and to be able to respond thoughtfully 100% of the time.

For the 7 situations today, I will discuss the math behind each to help you understand or at least to look at the situation from a logical, rational perspective. These mathematical insights may help us to get beyond the emotions that the situations nationally bring forth.

After discussing the math, I’ll give you some tips on how to appropriately respond to each.

1. Missing the flop over and over (4:55)

Do you know how often an average preflop 2betting range misses the flop?

It’s surprisingly often. Your average opening range is probably around 25% or so (less in the EP and higher in the later positions), but, we’ll use 25% as an average.

25% range and Flopzilla

Given this range, how often do you think it hits top pair or better on the flop or an open-ended straight draw or better? The answer is only 34%!  If you only hit the flop 34%, you’re missing 66% of the time. That’s 2 out of every 3 flops you see as the preflop raiser.

With something that happens more than half of the time, why does this cause our frustration to rise? If something happens more than half of the time, we should come to expect it and learn how to deal with it.

If 66% of the time you came home and your kids didn’t have their homework done yet, what would you do about it? Would you just yell at them every single time that they need to get their homework done? Or, would you try to design a system and create a plan for every day after school that will help them do it before you get home? Yep, I’m right there with you; create a system.

Tips to Respond:

1. Expect to miss every single flop, and be happy when you actually do hit it. If you expect to miss it, you won’t be as upset when it actually does happen.

2. Choose the right sizing for your bluff cbet. Just because you miss the flop doesn’t mean you can’t still cbet. Against most opponents, cbetting can convince them to fold a majority of their hands. Just choose the right size that will accomplish this.

3. Consider your opponent and their stats before you decide to bluff. Take a look at their Fold to Cbet, their Check-Raise stat and their Raise Cbet stat before you make that bluff. And if you feel really uncomfortable with bluff cbetting, drop down in stakes and do some cheaper bluff cbetting practice. Cbet bluffing in a 2NL game is much less stressful than your normal 25NL game.

2. Overcards to your pair on the flop (7:40)

This is a very common situation. You raise preflop with QQ, you get 2 loose-passive callers, and then the flop comes A54. “Dammit! Things were looking so good until that flop. FML.”

Let’s look at the math behind the situation. How often does your strong pair become an underpair on the flop?

  • KK, according to Flopzilla, will be an underpair on the flop 21% of the time
  • QQ: 34%
  • JJ: 42%
  • TT: 44%

The lower your pocket pair, the greater the chances there will be at least one overcard on the flop. Now that you know how often this is going to happen to you, you should just come to expect. Hopefully, this expectation of an unfavorable flop will help to lessen the pain of it.

Tips to Respond:

1. Look on the bright side… this might just save you money. The other day I was dealt QQ and I 3bet preflop. The open raiser just called and the flop came A54. I figured this opponent has AK, AQ and AJ in their open/calling range. So, I didn’t make the cbet and my opponent didn’t like the Ace-high board either because we both checked it down. At SD Villain had KK to beat my QQ. Thank goodness he was a passive player in general and wanted to slow-play those KK preflop. And, I saved a lot of money thanks to that Ace on the flop. Sure, looking back at the situation, maybe I should’ve made a bluff cbet. But I didn’t, and I ended up saving myself some money.

2. Try to remember that just because the overcard comes on the flop doesn’t mean your opponent hit that card. If they fold often enough to cbets, like 60% or greater, you should generally throw out that bluff cbet. If they decide to call, bummer. Just give up the hand unless you turn or river something good.

3. Loose aggressive players on your left constantly 3betting you (10:05)

At any table, take a look at the players who are on your left and gauge how often they 3bet. For any player whose 3bet is greater than 10% by position and versus your position, expect a 3bet. If you expect the 3bet, then once again, you won’t be so angered by it when it does happen. And because you expect that 3bet, you’re going to be just fine opening and then folding your hands, or you may even choose to adjust your preflop ranges because you’re expecting that 3bet.

Tips to Respond:

1. Tighten your open-raising range. Your opponents won’t realize too quickly that you tightened up. This is your opportunity to have more hands within your open-raising range that you’re willing to defend with. Now who’s taking advantage of their opponent’s style of play?

2. Leave the table. If these players are making it too difficult on you, and you do not want to try to fight fire with fire nor narrow your ranges, leave and find a better table to play on.

Life’s too short to play on unprofitable and un-fun tables.

3. Open raise with hands that you’re willing to 4bet with. These might be outside of your normal ranges, but you want to punish them and take down their bluff 3bets. Suited Aces make for very good 4bet bluffing hands, as do KQs and maybe even KJs. All of these hands have pretty good blocking power to AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK and AQ.

4. Being targeted by strong players (12:00)

This is related to the prior tilting situation. Sometimes you come across who you suspect is targeting you with aggression. Maybe it’s both preflop and post-flop. When you suspect this, make a note of it and think about the situation you’re in. Why are they targeting you? Are you opening-raising too frequently? Do you fold to 3bets or cbets or check-raises too often?

Your answers to these questions will help you determine the proper strategy to use against the player. Utilize their stats to gauge how they may be displaying too much aggression, and devise strategies to exploit their exploit of you.

Tips to Respond:

1. Play against them in position. This only happens once per round if they’re on your direct left. But, if they’re two or three seats over, you have more opportunities. They may choose to ignore a positional disadvantage and still aggress against you, but that makes their aggression a bit more risky and they may be less inclined to do so. And with your positional advantage, you may be able to turn the tables on them.

2. You can leave the table and find another more profitable one.

3. Pull them up in your PokerTracker 4 database and dissect their play. Now that you’re off the felt, you have more time to look at their showdown hands and find patterns you can exploit in their play. Do they size their bluffs smaller than value bets? Are they honest on any specific street? Do they get aggressive with draws but slow play their made hands?

Check these out:

The featured song in today’s episode was called “I Tilted” by Luigi Cappel.

I was interviewed by Rahul Singh of Pokernews India.  Check out the article.

Start your audiobook learning by picking up ‘Preflop Online Poker’ through Audible.com. Click the pic above to begin your free 30-day trial or to purchase the audiobook version if you’re already a member.

5. Suck-outs (15:20)

Suck outs used to set me on tilt until I learned a bit more about them. Here are some things I learned:

1. We remember the bad suck outs that hurt us, and we tend to forget the good ones that helped us. I don’t know how many times I’ve gone back through my database during a study session and found a hand that I completely forgot about. Like times when my T9s sucked out against AA. Or hands when my gut shot sucked out against top set.

2. I don’t have the best short-term memory, so I don’t remember bad beats the next day. Since I realized this, I’ve decided to just get over them quicker. So, now I often don’t remember them even an hour later.

3. I understand that just because your hand is ahead now, that doesn’t mean you will win at showdown. This is about understanding probabilities and sometimes an unlikely event is still going to happen.

Preflop Example:

Pocket aces versus 54s has about 80% equity. That means that if the money got all in preflop, the AA would win 4/5 times. This means 54s will win 1/5 times. I used to think to myself. “AA! I’m going to win this hand no matter what.” But that’s not the case. We all know the luck involved in poker, and the luck is there for you and for your opponents. This understanding should hopefully curtail the anger you sometimes feel for preflop suck-outs.

Post-flop Examples:

  • Your set versus a fd will win about 74% of the time. That means that 26% of the time, or ¼, your set will end up losing.
  • Your TP versus a bdfd has 94% equity. It’s almost a lock, but 1/15  times you’ll still lose the hand.
  • Your overpair AA versus a gut shot has 65% equity. So, the gs will catch a better hand 1/3 times.

Here’s the takeaway: Inferior hands still have some equity, but they cannot fight the math indefinitely. Most of the time the better hand will win. So, be understanding when things don’t go your way, and be thankful when you’re the one who sucks out.

Tips to Respond:

1. Be happy you were such a favorite and made great theoretical value. Your fishy opponents can’t escape the math forever.

2. Take a five-minute break. Just step away, go for a walk, use the restroom, drink some water or do some push-ups. If you’re feeling good, get back to the game. If not, end the session.

3. Keep in mind that you suck out just as often as your opponents do. What comes around goes around.

4. Be happy that suck outs exist because that’s what convinces the fish to make terrible plays. When your opponent calls with the gut shot knowing they are behind, they made a huge mistake and you just made tons of theoretical value from them. This is what makes poker profitable.

6. Fish building huge stacks (18:55)

This doesn’t put me on tilt, but I’ve heard it affects others. Some players get angry when the fish wins three or four big pots in a row and goes from 100 big blinds to a 400bb stack.  Suck outs happen and they can happen consecutively. I’ve seen fish build 500 big blind stacks before within 10 minutes at a table.

Tips to Respond:

1. Keep this logic statement in mind:

Every dog has their day, and every fish gets filleted… eventually.

2. Now the fish has more money to give you with their bad decisions. Be patient and wait for good opportunities to play against them.

3. Winner’s tilt is now a possibility. This fish is winning so much that they can begin to feel invincible. So, they start calling and betting in terrible situations. You can use these opportunities to bet and raise for extremely good value when you have your big valuable hands. Don’t try too hard to filet these fish. Let them jump into your boat, flop around a bit and land on your cutting table. You’ll be there waiting with knife in hand.

7. The fish won’t fold (20:10)

Even the weakest of players know about bluff cbetting. They’ve learned to not get blown off the hand so easily. So, how do you know you’re up against one of these non-folding fish? The first thing you’ll do is look at their Fold to Cbet stats on the flop and the turn. If it’s anything below 40%, they don’t like folding.  And if it’s as low as 10-15%, they absolutely hate folding. So, when an opponent is not folding, what should you be doing? You should only be betting for value. Remember my motto:

If they ain’t folding, we ain’t bluffing.

That’s the critical thing that too many good players sometimes forget. They’re so used to betting and getting their opponents to fold, that when they come up against somebody who is not folding, they forget about the option to check.

Tip to Respond:

1. When they ain’t folding, you ain’t bluffing. Value bet only against these non-folding players. If that means you must occasionally check and give up on a pot, so be it.  Just be patient and wait for the right hand to come along and get max value from these non-folding fish.

Challenge (21:30)

Here’s my challenge to you for this episode:  Choose the one situation out of these 7 that tilts you the most often and work on it in every session this week. You know it’s going to happen, so plan for it. Take the tips I gave you and put them on a sticky note on your computer. Add any other tactics you can think of to help you deal with the anger as well. Read the sticky note before your session to help you keep in mind what you’ll do when the inevitable tilting situation occurs.

Now it’s your turn to pull the trigger and do something positive for your poker game.

Support the Show

Chris Carney supported the show when he picked up PokerTracker through my affiliate link.  I sent him my Smart HUD in appreciation for his support.

Up Next…

In episode 211, Peter “Carroters” Clarke will be on the podcast again.  He’s the author of The Grinders Manual and he’s got some killer GTO-related strategy to share with us.

Until next time, study smart, play much and make your next session the best one yet.

5 Essential Concepts for Poker Profitability | Episode #207

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I discuss the 5 essential concepts for poker profitability: EV, play the player, bankroll management, table selection and the mental game.

In episode 206, I answered 4 questions about studying apathy, the SPS archive, JTo and learning from showdowns.

The 5 Essential Concepts of Playing Profitable Poker

1. EV Decision-making (2:55)

EV stands for expected value, and it’s the value of a prospective play.

Why is EV Decision-making important?

Thinking in terms of EV means that you’re giving more than just some casual thought to your next button click.  If you’re working with an EV mindset, you’re trying to think at a deeper level when making decisions. You’re considering all of your options, and you’re thinking about the value of each of them.

Poker is one big math problem so EV decision-making gives you a more logical mathematical approach to playing poker.

Here’s a common non-EV approach to a hand: a player looks down to see that they have a flush draw.  They get a little excited and think to themselves, “Geez, I hope I get my flush on the next street.” Then they unthinkingly call the flop in an order to see the next street.

But somebody with an EV mindset will instead think, “I have a flush draw, and I’m out of position. What’s my best play here? Should I just check/call? Should I check/raise to bluff them off the pot? Or, should I donk bet in order to make them think I hit a really strong hand?”

The person who plays with an EV mindset is going to consider all of their options before they click a button, and they’re going to go with the most +EV option.

Every decision you make lies along an EV spectrum.

Right in the middle of the spectrum is neutral or 0EV. This is a decision that neither makes you money nor costs you money in the long run. It’s like folding your hand on the BTN 1 million times. You haven’t committed any chips yet to the pot, so whether you fold AA or 72o, your chip stack is the exact same at the end of the hand. So, the EV value of folding on the BTN is $0.

To the right of the 0EV center are +EV decisions, the ones that earn you some amount of money. And some decisions are more +EV or profitable than others. Consider AA.  3betting with AA preflop is definitely +EV.  But, there might be times based on the opponents, bet sizing or tournament conditions that calling could be a more profitable move.

To the left of 0EV on the spectrum is -EV. These are all decisions that cost you money in the long-run. Sure, you might hit your flush on the next street this time, but if it’s mathematically not profitable for you to call on the flop, in the long run you’re just handing money over to your opponent.

How can you practice EV decision-making?

On the felt, you can put a focus on considering all of your options before you click that button. Too many players auto-3bet or cbet or call in different situations. Your goal in playing with an EV mindset is to place each decision along the EV spectrum and choose the one that is most +EV.

The other way you can practice an EV mindset is off the felt. As you review your hands, take the time to really consider your decisions and gauge where each decision lands on a EV spectrum. You can print and laminate the screenshot and use it off the felt for practice. Take the time to determine which option is most +EV and resolve to make that play in the future.

The final thing that you can is use an EV calculator as you review hands. SplitSuit at RedChipPoker.com has a great free and easy to use EV calculator to get you started: https://redchippoker.com/simple-poker-ev-calculator/

2. Play the Player (7:20)

Why do you want to play the player?

Beginning players are at Level I: they think only about their cards and their hand strength in relation to the board.

Level II players think about the other player’s hand and their tendencies. Their goal is to understand the villain in an effort to exploit them by bluffing them off pots or gaining extra value. When you understand your opponents, you realize that there are many +EV options available to you.

When a Level I player flops a 2p hand, they’re prone to just bet, bet and bet again.

But, if a Level II player knows their opponent’s tendencies, they’ve got other options. Maybe Villain hates to bet then fold post-flop. So, the Level II player exploits this by checking then raising on the flop. Villain is predisposed to call, which builds the pot for bigger turn and river bets. This earns a Level II player more than a Level I player would’ve made.

How do you put “play the player” into action?

Study player types at your stakes. There are LAG’s, TAG’s, Nits and Fish of varying degrees. How do each of these player types choose their hands pre-flop? How do these player types play post-flop? You want to look for tendencies in the various player types at your stakes so you can devise ways to exploit them. You might know of a lot of TAG players who cbet almost every flop, but they double-barrel only when they’ve got the goods. Great! Against these players, call every one of their flop cbets when IP, then fire the turn when they check. Bam! Money-making exploits put to use.

Also, utilize your HUD. It isn’t there just for looks. Use the percentages to gauge your opponent’s tendencies then find opportunities to exploit them.

Start your audiobook learning by picking up ‘Preflop Online Poker’ through Audible.com. Click the pic above to begin your free 30-day trial or to purchase the audiobook version if you’re already a member.

3. Bankroll Management (12:05)

Why is bankroll management important?

You’ve got to have money in order to make money and without bankroll management, you’re likely to lose your bankroll. Profitable poker involves building up your bankroll so you can safely move up in stakes and make even more profits. Somebody who’s a 10bb/hour winner is going to make a lot more money at $5/$10 than at $1/$2.  The higher the stakes, the more potential profit.

Also, bankroll management keeps you in control of your money and doesn’t let your emotions get in the way. Here’s something I’ve done before. I lost 5 $7 SNG’s in a row. I was tilting and angry, so I decided to play a $30 SNG in order to turn a quick profit. I wasn’t rolled for it nor was I ready for that level of play. Of course, I lost and compounded my losses for the day with that stupid -EV choice.

What are my recommendations for bankroll management?

If you’re cash game player, I recommend having 40 to 60 buy-ins for the level that you play. This can be hard to do for LIVE players. Even at $1/$2 stakes, a standard buy-in is $200, x40 means you need $8,000 to play these stakes. So, 40 to 60 bi’s is definitely a good rule of thumb for online, but for LIVE players, you’ve got to do the best you can.

If you’re an MTT or SNG player, I recommend between 100 and 200 buy-ins, preferably closer to 200. We all know the variance involved in tournaments, so 200 bi’s isn’t an unreasonable target. This just makes for a great safety cushion as you grind them tourneys.

It is okay to take occasional shots, especially if your bankroll is over the required amount. If you play with the 40x bi requirement for cash games, and you’re at 50x, great! Throw in the occasional buy-in at the next level to see if you can’t earn some extra profits and gain some experience.

And if at all possible, don’t withdraw your money from your bankroll. Your goal is to build your bankroll so you can move up safely to the next level and make more money. If you continually withdraw money and you’re always at 40 buy-ins, you’ll forever be stuck there.

For more bankroll management, check out this post from TopPokerValue.com.

4. Table and Seat Selection (15:15)

Why is table selection so important?

The players that you play with are a huge factor in your profitability. Let’s look at a couple of extreme examples.

The 1st example is you’re at a FR table with 8 highly skilled players who’re all better than you. Being the worst at the table gives you a very low probability of making any money this session.

Next, let’s look at the other extreme: you’re the single best person at the table with 8 other first-time poker players. Yep, totally profitable situation to be in.

You are going to make poker more profitable by sitting at tables with many players who are worse than you.

Seat selection example: you’re at a FR table with 2 equally skilled players on your direct left and 6 other fish. It’s going to be tough to make money and exploit the other players at the table because these 2 are going to exploit your exploits as much as possible. But if the other 2 players are to your right or directly across the table from you, you’ll have more opportunities to exploit them and the fish.

How are you going to practice table/seat selection?

Look for profitable tables and profitable seats. If you’re an online player you must go by the rules of the site, but do your best to leave unprofitable tables and find profitable ones. If you’re a LIVE cash game player, it’s a bit different. Put your name on the wait list then observe the tables. If you get sat at a good table, stay there. If the one next to you is more profitable, then request a table change.  If you’re seated in a bad seat, wait for a good one to open up, throw a chip across the table, announce “seat change” and make your move. The key thing here is to not stay at unprofitable tables or unprofitable seats.

Life is too short to play in unprofitable poker situations.

5. The Mental Game (17:40)

Why is the mental game so important?

The mental game is important because it’s the most insidious, costly, and yet hard to fix issue for most players. Most players know that they suffer from some kind of anger or tilt issues, but they often don’t know how to resolve them. Let’s look at how tilt can affect the other 4 concepts already mentioned.

The first was “EV Decision-making”.  Anger kicks EV decision to the curb. You begin making your plays based on your hand, the board, your hatred of your opponent or your eagerness to finally win a pot. You stop thinking through things and act on emotion, which leads to chip spew.

The second was “Play the Player”. We’ve all done this: we’re tilted because the donk over there sucked out on us, so now we target him and play every hand he does in order to get revenge and earn our chips back. We put ourselves in terrible situations with crappy cards, and we spew off chips to get them to fold or in hopes of catching our miracle river 6 high back-door straight draw.

The third was “Bankroll Management”. Anger can easily cause you to spew stacks off, or like I mentioned earlier, buy into games too big for your roll and you’re not even mentally prepared to tackle that bigger game so you lose more money.

The final aspect was “Table and Seat Selection”. Exhaustion, distraction or anger can cause you to miss the fact that you’re at a terrible table or seat. These factors can also cause you to stay at the casino longer then normal and play at a sub-par level. You know that you should be leaving, but your inability to think straight is causing you to stay longer to try to win back your losses.

What can you do about this mental game issue?

Once you are aware that you have an issue you can work to fix it. I recommend that you start journaling on what sets you on tilt. When you notice your emotions rising, take a breath and tag the hand for later review. What happened to get your heart beating? What did you do or your opponents do to get you angry? What situation is setting your emotions rising?  Whatever it is, journal about it so you can start to deal with those issues.

Next, prepare for how to handle eventual anger/tilty situations. When you know the situations that tilt you, you can create a plan to deal with them in a safe and sane way.

I recommend that you read books or listen to mindset-type content. Start with anything from Jared Tendler and Dr. Tricia Cardner: they’ve both got books and podcasts to help you out.

And lastly be honest with yourself and confront your tilting demons. Don’t act like it’s no big deal. Tilt and mental game issues cause major losses and poker setbacks. Don’t let yourself become a poker mindset casualty.

Challenge (20:50)

Here’s my challenge to you for this episode:  Use Splitsuit’s EV calculator to run some EV calculations with your own hands.  Maybe look for good 3bet bluff opportunities, check-raise semi-bluffing opportunities or simple flop bluff cbet opportunities. Run the calculations to see the EV of the play you’re considering. You’ll learn a lot from this exercise, especially if you’ve never considered the profitability of individual plays before.

Now it’s your turn to pull the trigger and do something positive for your poker game.

Challenge Demonstration:

Support the Show

Daniel Koffler supported the show by picking up PokerTracker 4 through my affiliate link.  I sent him my Smart HUD in appreciation.

Hai Le is working to become a math master by purchasing and studying the Poker Mathematics Webinar that I did with Mark Warner.  This webinar is full of critical math concepts that help you make the best decisions at the tables.

Up Next…

In episode 208, I’m going to discuss making the transition from TAG to LAG play.

Until next time, study smart, play much and make your next session the best one yet.

Simplifying the Top 10 Poker HUD Stats | Podcast #204

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I simplify the Top 10 poker HUD stats by telling you the 3 things you MUST know about each.

In episode 203, I discussed how recording and reviewing poker play sessions is the #1 strategy that you MUST employ.

If you can’t explain it simply… (2:50)

This episode is inspired by a quote from Albert Einstein:

My goal today is to simplify the Top 10 HUD Stats so you can get more out of your HUD starting with your next session tonight.  But we must begin with the type of number HUD stats present to you… percentages.

Percentage

Most of the HUD stats you’re presented with are in terms of a percentage. A percentage is simply a part of a whole.  Once you understand the whole, you understand that smaller part.  $1 is 100 cents, so, 50% of $1 is 50 cents.  1 hour is 60 minutes, so, 25% of one hour is 15 minutes.

HUD Stat percentages are parts of 2 different wholes:

  1. This first whole is the number of starting hand combinations you can be dealt in NLHE
  2. The second whole is the number of opportunities presented to the player

1. Total Starting Hand Combos = 1,326

You can be dealt 1,326 starting hand combos in NLHE.  The stats that relate to this whole number are VPIP, PFR, Raise First In, 3bet and Fold to Steal.

  • 10% of hands = 133 combos (rounded down to 130 for simplicity)
  • 20% of hands = 260 combos
  • 30% of hands = 390 combos (rounded up to 400 for simplicity)

Let’s look at the 10% range in relation to the Raise First In statistic:

  • A 10% RFI might be somebody’s UTG range of hands.
  • 10% might be 55+, AT+, KQs and KJs for exactly 132 combos.

Now, let’s look at a 10% Call 2bet statistic:

  • This is still 130 combos, but it’s not going to contain AA, KK, QQ or AK.
  • This 10% calling range might be 22-JJ, AT-AQ, QTs+ and T9s+

Both ranges above were 10% and 132 combos, but the cards within each vary based on the preflop action taken.

2. The Number of Total Opportunities Presented

The other “whole” used for HUD stat percentages are the total opportunities present. These are stats like Fold to 3bet, Cbet and Fold to Cbet.

Let’s look at the Cbet stat.  A Cbet of 70% means they cbet 70 times out of every 100 opportunities.  It’s important to note that most ranges hit the flop with a TP+ and a good draw about 35% of the time.  So, if somebody is cbetting at 70%, half of the time they are cbetting with worse than TP, weak draws and complete bluffs.

Before you draw this conclusion with everyone who cbets at 70%, it’s important to consider how frequently they have the opportunity to cbet.

Somebody raising only 10% of hands preflop gets to the flop less often but with a stronger range of hands.  The 10% range flops TP+ and good draws about 40% of the time.  If they cbet at 70%, more than half of their cbetting hands are TP+ and good draws.

Conversely, somebody who plays 50% of hands flops TP+ and good draws only 29% of the time.  If they cbet at 70%, more than half of the time they’re doing it with weaker hands and draws.

Here’s a rule of thumb for HUD stats: the higher the percentage, the weaker their range.

Somebody playing 50% of hands and cbetting at 70% is much weaker on the flop than another who is playing 10% of hands and cbetting at 70% as well.

Another way to look at this is you should be more inclined to believe the person with the smaller range.

Trusting the Stat Percentages

Here’s a question for you: How do you know a stat percentage is reliable?

As you gain experience using stats to exploit your opponents, you’ll begin to gain a sense of when to rely on a stat and when to ignore it.

Stats aren’t so reliable at 10 opportunities.  They begin to become reliable at 20 opportunities.  At 50 they’re very reliable and at 100+ they’re extremely reliable.

So, a 10% 3bet seems high, but 10% is only once out of 10 opportunities.  That’s not enough to say that this player is a 3bet bluffer.  If it’s still 10% after 50 opportunities, it’s likely they like to 3bet bluff.  And at 10% over 100+ opportunities, you’ve found a 3bet bluffer.

The Top 10 Poker HUD Stats (8:50)

Here are a few guidelines I gave myself for simplifying the stats:

  • I’m only allowed to give you 3 sentences per statistic
  • I’m going to assume that you know some common poker terms (ex. “positional awareness”)
  • I’m also assuming you know the definition of these stats and how they’re calculated (ex. I won’t define nor give you the formula for “3bet”)

So, this is geared towards people familiar with HUD Stats, but they might not know HOW to use all the stats HUD.

The 10 stats are broken up between 6 preflop and 4 post-flop.

I’m giving you all these stats in order of importance.  So, if you can only use one stat in your HUD, #1 is it.  If you can only use two, use #’s 1 and 2… and so on

Preflop Stats (9:50)

#1: VPIP or Voluntarily Put Money in the Pot
  • The key word here is “voluntarily” and this stat refers to an exact range of hands they choose to play.
  • A VPIP > 40% indicates a very loose player that you should try to play hands against.
  • Make sure to also keep this stat as a pop-up displayed by position because positional awareness is an important indicator of your opponent’s skill level.
#2: PFR or Preflop Raise
  • This is a sign of overall preflop aggression and includes 2bets, 3bets and beyond.
  • Anything over 25% is too aggressive and must be fought back against with value 3bets and bluff 3bets if they’re capable of folding.
  • Also keep this as a positional pop-up because again, it’s an indicator of their positional awareness and how strong they are as a player.
#3: RFI or Raise First In
  • This correlates exactly to the range of hands that they choose to open the pot with when they’re first to act or it’s folded around to them.
  • Keep it as a positional popup because this will tell you exactly which positions they choose to steal pots from.
  • Positionally aware players have an increasing RFI as position gets later, with the CO, BTN and SB numbers being the biggest.
Start your audiobook learning by picking up ‘Preflop Online Poker’ through Audible.com. Click the pic above to begin your free 30-day trial or to purchase the audiobook version if you’re already a member.
#4: Preflop 3bet
  • As a total %, it’s useful in your HUD but takes on greater significance when it’s broken down by position in a popup.
  • Percentages by position less than 3% is a strictly value-oriented range and you should only 4bet or call with your strongest starting hands.
  • Anything greater than 6% by position tells you where they like to 3bet bluff from, so plan for it and respond accordingly.
#5: 2bet/Fold to 3bet
  • Make sure to use the “2bet/Fold to 3bet” instead of the regular “Fold to 3bet” stat because this gives you more relevant information that you can use to exploit the preflop raiser.
  • If it’s over 70% by position, then you can make very profitable 3bet bluffs with good bluffing hands like suited blockers, suited-connectors and pocket pairs.
  • If the stat is below 50%, you only want to value 3bet against them or bluff when you’re in position with a good blocking hands like suited Aces and KQs.
#6: Fold to Steal
  • Great stealing targets have a Fold to Steal above 70% and the higher it is, the better.
  • At less than 70% look at their 3bet and their 2bet Call stats before stealing from them.
  • You can multiply the Fold to Steal stat of the SB times the BB to see how often they fold together to steals.

Where’s the Attempt to Steal Stat?

Observant listeners might have noticed that I left out the Attempt to Steal stat.  It’s not a necessary stat because this is the same as RFI from the CO, BTN and SB.  You should have these in a popup, so there’s no need for ATS.

Post-flop Stats (17:00)

#7: Flop Cbet
  • This is the part of their preflop raising range that fires a bet on the flop, so the smaller their preflop range, the more likely a cbet is for value.
  • 70% is a “standard percentage” for most solid players, and because ranges only hit the flop at 35% on average, a 70% range contain at least 50% marginal pairs, bluffs and semi-bluffing draws.
  • Keep this stat in a popup as well so you can exploit any difference in Cbet % when IP vs OOP.
#8: Turn Cbet
  • This is the famed “double-barrel stat” that tells you whether or not a player is one-and-done on the flop or if they fire the turn as well.
  • Compare the Flop with the Turn stat to see which street they get honest on as the honesty street has the lower percentage.
  • Again, relative position is useful so have this in a popup for in position or out of position honesty: most players cbet more frequently when in position than out of position.
#9: Fold to Flop Cbet
  • The higher and closer to 70% this number is, the more honest they are versus cbets, which makes these players good bluffing targets.
  • You want to view this by relative position and actual position in a pop-up because seeing these will tell you when the opponent is most honest so you can make profitable bluffs.
  • The wider their calling range is preflop, the more marginal pairs and draws they’ll have in their flop calling range.
#10: Fold to Turn Cbet
  • Compare this with the Flop % to see which street they’re honest on versus cbets and make sure you have the chips and stack sizes big enough to bluff on this street.
  • Fold to Turn Cbet at around 60% or greater must be bluffed frequently.
  • If below 40%, you can semi-bluff with your drawing hands and when in position, but keep your cbets mainly for value when they hate folding.

Challenge (19:35)

Here’s my challenge to you for this episode:  Pick one stat that you’re not at all comfortable with and practice using it to exploit your opponents in your next session.  Keep in mind the 3 pieces of info I gave you on each stat, and do some research on your own to learn more about it.  The research and learning are easy.  The tough part will come from putting your knowledge into action and using the stat to exploit opponents.  But, the only way you’ll learn how is by doing it.  So, do it!

Now it’s your turn to take action and do something positive for your poker game.

Support the Show

Jeremy Thiam purchased the PokerTracker 4 Smart HUD and I’m sure today’s episode will help him out in his pursuit of player exploitation. Along with the HUD, I sent him some bonus videos to help him get more from it and PT4.  Click here to get the Smart HUD.

Guy Brooks purchased a webinar I did with Mark Warner of ExceptionalPoker.com called “Poker Mathematics Webinar”.  We got tons of great feedback from this one, and if you’re looking to bone-up on your poker math, click here to get $5 off the webinar.

Q&A: Poker Math and Hand Reading | Podcast #202

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I answer 3 questions about poker math, hand reading and another about putting them both together.

In episode 201, I answered 3 questions about cbetting without HUD stats, improving your poker session reviews and focusing on one thing at a time.

Q1: Poker Math (3:00)

From: Vincent

Q: Hi Sky.  I would like to improve my knowledge of poker math. For example: what are the various equations I should be using and when should they be used during play?

Answer:

Poker is just one big math problem.  And don’t be all freaked out over that.  Poker math is all addition, subtraction, multiplication and division.  It’s simple, but it does take some practice.

Here’s a 3-step math improvement process:

Step 1: take notes on the math involved

When you’re studying any type of math, take notes on the equations and the situations where you can use them.  If you’re studying profitable calling, the formula you’ll learn is the break-even formula.  This is simply the amount of your call divided by the total pot after your call goes in.  You’ll write this formula down in your notes with at least one example.

Calling Break-even Formula: Amount of Call / (Pot + Amount of Call)

Example: your opponent bet $2 in a $2 pot.  Your $2 call makes the total pot $6.  So, you need to have a superior hand or hit a better hand at least 33% of the time to break-even ($2/$6).

Step 2: practice the math off the felt.

Look at your database and review some hands where you made a river call.  For each call, calculate the break-even %.  Next, estimate the frequency that you’re winning the pot.  If you estimate you’re winning more frequently than the break-even %, you made a good call.  If less, it was a bad call.

Step 3: practice the math on the felt.

Over your next few play sessions, focus on the break-even % for calls.  They don’t have to be your calls either.  Just watch the action and every time somebody faces a bet, run the math in your head for their calling break-even %.

Example: a player bets $3 into a $6.50 pot.  The calling break-even percentage is 3/$12.50.  This is tough to calculate exactly, but you don’t have to be exact.  Estimate instead.  $12.50 is very close to $12, so 3/12 = 25%.

For specific math-focused episodes just click on your choice below to be taken directly to the show notes:

Mark Warner recently published a great article on poker math call “The Shocking Truth About Poker Math” on ExceptionalPoker.com.  I recommend you check it out.

Q2: Poker Math and Hand Reading (8:40)

From: David Blundred

Q: I think one poker skill I need to work on would be learning the math side of things.  Also, I need to improve my hand reading skills.

Answer:

I figured I’d answer this question and kind of combine both the math and hand reading.  Superior poker math skills along with hand reading skills with make you a +EV machine.

In order to develop your hand readings skills, you’ve got to learn how to do it and you’ve got to practice it daily.  Please check out my 66 Days of Hand Reading videos on YouTube.

In these videos I show you how to hand read the villain’s range, the hero’s range and both ranges simultaneously.  Next, you need to commit to doing your own hand reading challenge for at least a month.  This off the felt work will ingrain these skills into your unconscious competence and will improve your intuition for it to help you hand read on the felt.

In the prior question from Vincent, I gave a 3-step math improvement process.  Now, here’s a 4th step for practicing math and hand reading at the same time:

Step 4: choose a hand to review that demonstrates the math you’re working on.

For example, if you’re working on making profitable calls with outs and odds math, choose a hand to review where you have some sort of draw on the flop and face a bet.

Start the hand reading like usual where you put your opponent on a range of hands and enter in your hand in Flopzilla.  Enter the board cards and before you narrow your opponent’s range, run the calling math and calculate the odds you’ll hit your draw.  If the math is in your favor, you made a good call.  Now, narrow your opponent’s range on the flop.  Enter the turn card.  If your opponent bets again and you didn’t hit your draw, run the math again.  Repeat this process through the streets in an effort to drill the math and the ranging practice in your noggin.

And think about your options other than calling and that math.  What if you raised instead?  How often does your raise need to work to break-even?  Is your opponent folding often enough?  What size would you need to make it to get him to fold?

One hand history can give you lots of different math to work on and because you’re considering your opponent’s range, it should be pretty easy to figure out how often he’s folding or re-raising or calling.

Check out Splitsuit’s Poker Workbooks for some great hand reading practice.

Start your audiobook learning by picking up ‘Preflop Online Poker’ through Audible.com. Click the pic above to begin your free 30-day trial or to purchase the audiobook version if you’re already a member.

Q3: Hand Reading LIVE Unknown Players (15:45)

From: Jordan Schiller

Q: One area I am finding difficulty is when it comes to establishing hand ranges for opponents at LIVE games. Due to minimal cards seen, time at the table, and people coming and going, establishing their hand ranges has been a real struggle. Assigning them a hand strength based on bet sizing is much easier because people tend to be much more consistent with their betting at a $3/$5 table. Any tips, though, for increasing LIVE game hand reading techniques would be appreciated.

Answer:

Doing off the felt hand reading is how you’ll develop an intuition for it on the felt.

Continue to do the bet ranging you do.  Many LIVE players tell you what they have with their bet sizing, so this is a great exploit.

But, here’s one thing you can do to incorporate hand reading along with bet ranging against “unknown” players.  Spend some time thinking about 5 actual players you play with, people who you know the names of.  One should be a Nit, another a TAG, and the others LAG’s, Maniacs, Whales.

If Bob is the Whale (plays passively, too many hands preflop, calling station post-flop), create ranges for his open-raising, 2bet calling, 3betting and 3bet calling.  These are hands that you believe Bob will play depending on how he enters the hand.  Do this for the other 4 players you have in mind.

These are your Default Player Type Ranges

Now, treat these ranges as default for any other player who fits one of the types.  If you’ve been at a table with Jerry for only 3 rounds, but he seems to be as loose and stationy as Bob (maybe lots of limp/calling and you’ve seen a 3rd pair showdown that he called 2 streets with), then consider Bob’s range as Jerry’s.  Same for any other players who are playing like one of the people you have in mind.

Once you have a range in mind, actively think about their range as you play.  This is easiest done in hands that you’re not involved in, but you should practice both ways.

One last thing, if the player you’re up against is a complete unknown, like it’s his first hand and he called your CO open from the BB, treat one of the ranges you create as your population average.  You’ve made 2bet calling ranges for Nits, LAG’s, TAG’s, Maniacs and Whales.  Which of these represents your average player?  This is your “population range”.

For more hand analysis techniques, check out these tips from UltimatePokerCoaching.com.

Challenge (20:05)

Here’s my challenge to you for this episode:   Practice your poker math!  I know there’s some kind of math that’s causing an issue for you.  Maybe it’s calling with draws, improving your river calls, understanding percentage form or HUD stat percentages, or something else.  Figure out the math you want to work on then follow the 4 steps I outlined today.

Now it’s your turn to take action and do something positive for your poker game.

Support the Show

Luigi Cappel gave How to Study Poker Volume 1 a lovely review on Goodreads.com.  No review could be better!  Thanks, Luigi!  If you leave a review for one of my books, please let me know so I can give you a shout-out on the podcast.

Daniel purchased my webinar called “Poker Mathematics”.  Along with this episode, Daniel’s got tons of help improving his poker game.  Click here to get the webinar for $5 off.

Up Next…

In episode 203, I’ll revisit my #1 poker study tip: recording and reviewing your play sessions.

Until next time, study smart, play much and make your next session the best one yet.